At the meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the Group of Twenty (G20) held in late July, China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei pointed out that some European and American countries hope that China’s economic growth rate will increase. Instead of economic stimulus policies, it is to promote structural adjustment and urbanization through reforms so as to promote economic growth and employment. This shows that the heavy truck market, which is closely linked with the economic situation, cannot expect to see sales growth through the country's introduction of a large-scale economic stimulus policy.
Will the heavy truck market fall into a continuing downturn again in the second half of the year after the arrival of a short spring? Has the past July just become the epitome of the heavy truck market in the second half? In addition, the implementation of Phase IV emission standards for heavy-duty commercial vehicles in China (hereinafter referred to as the "National IV Standard") is viewed from the current situation in various places, such as the fog of flowers.
In the face of all this, how should companies respond?
Stability has been set
Slight increase in demand
On the 30th of July, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to determine the current economic trends in the second half of the year and the “reasonable range of the major economic indicators in the first half of the year. The overall beginning of economic and social development is good.†and “China in the second half of the year. The economy will still maintain a clear judgment of overall steady development, and put forward the overall requirement of “to grasp the direction, intensity, and pace of macroeconomic regulation and control, and to keep the economic operation within a reasonable range†in the second half of the year.
Bringing memories back to five years ago, in response to the financial crisis that swept the world in 2008, the Chinese government launched a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan. According to a report from the World Wildlife Fund, 4 trillion yuan of economic stimulus plans are mainly investment-oriented, especially investment in infrastructure construction, and the stimulation of high energy-consuming industries such as cement, construction, and steel is significant. It is also thanks to the large-scale infrastructure construction and the rapid development of the logistics industry. In 2010, China's heavy-duty truck industry showed a growth momentum. In 2010, the output of heavy trucks in China reached an unprecedented 1,056,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.5%; sales volume of heavy trucks reached 1,104,800 units, an increase of 59.5% year-on-year, opening the most glorious page in the history of heavy truck development in China.
Now that the tone for stability in economic development has been set, it will inevitably affect the heavy truck market that is deeply affected by the economic environment. Tan Xiuqing, vice president of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, said that this year's steady macroeconomic growth, the heavy truck market can only be used to revitalize existing trucks on the basis of the formation of a slight increase in demand.
After a short spring
In the second half or will continue to decline
In fact, when reporters visited Beijing's heavy-duty front-line market at the end of July, they had already smelled the dismal operation of dealers.
Heavy-duty merchants on both sides of Jingliang Road in the South Fourth Ring Road in Beijing have reporters going year after year. However, in July this year, it was very difficult to meet a user watching a car while visiting. “After July, there were almost no people in the store.†A heavy-duty truck salesman told reporters, “First of all, this year’s pace of the country’s large-scale infrastructure construction slowed down, coupled with the sluggish logistics industry, many users’ vehicles. In idle, there is no need to buy a new car.The important point is that users are waiting to see the implementation of the National IV standard.Some have heard that the Chinese IV car will be introduced to the market, the price is more expensive than the National III car 340,000 yuan, They hesitated and waited on the spot. This year's ability to complete the sales task is not accurate."
The head of the marketing department of several heavy-duty truck companies interviewed by the reporter has the same feeling. Gao Qun, SAIC’s marketing director of Hongyan’s sales department, said that when the reporter visited the market, he saw that “there was a special reason†that is, the implementation of the national IV emission standard. The problem of resistance, the implementation of different situations across the country, the user had to wait and see again for some time.
In fact, judging from the sales data released by several domestic heavy truck companies, the heavy truck market has experienced a short period of time in the first half of this year, after experiencing a long period of low. Especially in May and June of this year, sales of many heavy truck companies increased rapidly year-on-year. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's heavy-duty truck companies have seen positive growth in their cumulative output growth from January to June this year, an increase of 5.9% compared with the same period of last year, and overall exceeded market expectations. Among them, Valin Xingma grew by 56%, Jianghuai Commercial Vehicle increased by 28%, and Beiqi Foton grew by 25%. In June this year alone, the production and sales of heavy trucks in China exceeded 70,000 vehicles, achieving a sales revenue of 30.8 billion yuan and a profit of 1.28 billion yuan. The major economic indicators increased by more than 40% year-on-year.
“People in the industry are aware that this is the impact of the implementation of State IV emission standards, and the demand is released ahead of schedule. All previous emission standards upgrades will have a small upsurge of sales in the early stages, but the latter period will inevitably be a trough. The first half can only be said to be The short spring that appeared in May and June," said Gao Qun.
Invisible second half
It's time to do a good job
“Predicting the market situation in the second half of this year, I am not sure and cannot see through. In short, the trend in the second half of the year should not be as good as in the first half of the year. But to be more specific, I really cannot tell. National IV does not know when The implementation of the facilities and how they are arranged are not clear. All this is hard to say.†Hua Yan Xing Ma, deputy general manager and senior engineer Wang Yanan told reporters, “Anyway, I believe all domestic heavy truck companies are ready. â€
As Wang Yanan said, heavy-duty truck companies have undergone many years of adjustments, product structures have been put in place, and production capacity expansion has reached a stage. The most critical point is that the parts and components suppliers of various manufacturers have also been adjusted. "Either the market is good or bad, everyone can respond in a timely manner and will not be as turbulent as it was when facing blowout of demand several years ago." He said, "Since the market is unclear and unclear, it's better not to guess. In the course of half a year, we will focus on internal efforts, improve the level of services including financial support, and strive to improve product quality and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises."
Gao Qun analyzed that in the second half of the year, the heavy truck market may have two possibilities: One is the introduction of small-scale economic stimulus policies by the country to stimulate some of the demand; the other is the further tightening of monetary policy by the country. It will be impossible to predict what will happen. However, he believes that if the current monetary policy remains unchanged, there will be no other special circumstances. The heavy truck market will be a “steady†state of development in the second half of this year. This state is reflected in the real market demand, rather than artificial control. The trend is either high or low, which shows the true demand of the market, because the market has entered a steady development track. In this situation, companies should focus on their own adjustments. For example, how to deal with national IV emissions, enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, improve service quality and so on.
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